Shall we grab the Oil Fields.
After the fall of the Ottoman Empire, the Western- Nation- States artificially constructed the countries that form now what we Westerners call the Middle East. At the same time was decided that the West would leave the natural resources to the respective countries. Now, in the 21st century, one can ask oneself if this was the right decision. First observation: the Muslim world hates us. Why do they hate us? I can only see the following reasons: - They are not yet recovered from the fall of the Ottoman Empire. - They are still dreaming about the Caliphate of the 7th and 8th Century and want to establish a new flourishing Caliphate ruling the whole world.
- The Muslims hate us because we support the Jews. Why do they hate the Jews? They hate them just because they are Jews and the Prophet has told them to hate and kill the Jews. - The same can be said about the Christians and the Westerners in General. They hate us because we are infidels and because the Prophet had told them to slaughter the infidels unless they convert to Islam. - They find our society decadent, materialistic and perverted.
Here I must admit that I look with disgust to some aspects of our society. Can this attitude of hate towards us be changed? I don't see any change possible in the near future and for the following reasons: - Muslim don't have the broad view on the world as we have. The ancient Greeks, the Romans, Christendom and all Western philosophers have influenced us and we have learned to accept opinions different from ours. We started thinking rational and developed sciences. Muslims on the other hand, only study Islam, most graduates from University have degrees in Islamic science. A larger part of Muslim population is still illiterate and accept blindly what the Mullahs say. -Concerning religion, Judaism and Christendom have consistent stories in the Holy Books and these stories are understandable for everyone who reads them. The Koran however is a collection of verses, sorted by verse-length (the longest first). There is no consistent story and this makes the book very difficult to read (try it!). Now about the oil.
Will the House of Saud fall? Yes it will fall. The only questions are when and who will follow up. When we are not watchful, it will be the forces that are actually trying to undermine the Kingdom: the Muslim Fundamentalists like Osama Bin Laden and the Wahabists. What will happen when the oil fields are coming in the hands of extreme Muslims? - As they are only concerned with religion, they might destroy all the installations, including these of the Emirates. - They could close the valves towards the West or ask prohibitive prices (Bin Laden's dream: $144/barrel). When Extremists take over the oil fields, the future doesn't look bright for the West and this would bring us in an unimaginable economic depression. At that moment, they have the best cards: or they stop the deliveries to the West, or they destroy the installations. Both actions are a real doom-scenario for the West. What is Wisdom? Shall we grab the oil fields before it is too late? What consequences would this have on the world-situation? Is the West capable of doing it? We can do it, we have the technology and the military power. It must be a short very accurate action, not giving the enemy the chance to react.
There are however other aspects that also must be considered. It must be a secret action, and at the same time accepted by the complete West (including Russia and Japan). Must China be informed with the guarantee that their oil deliveries will continue at reasonable prices. How will China react? During the Reagan administration, there has already been a computer simulation of such an action. This was however a "Cold War" situation, not longer applicable for our situation. Can we do the same exercise with the Kaspian oil and gaz fields? Again, what is Wisdom? What is the best thing to do, to guarantee the continuation of our Civilization? I do not know, but I think some action is necessary and there is not much time left.
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